Going into tonight's regular-season finale, one thing is certain. If MSU stays in ninth place, either with a loss or an Anchorage win (the Mavericks do have the tiebreaker over the Seawolves), it will go to Wisconsin for the first round of the WCHA playoffs.
If the Mavericks finish eighth -- they must win or tie tonight at St. Cloud State and have Minnesota Duluth defeat Anchorage -- then they will be the eighth seed and go back to St. Cloud or to North Dakota next week. With the loss last night, I'm pretty sure Duluth can no longer be the third seed, losing tiebreakers to both the Huskies and the Sioux (unless there is some three-way tiebreaker scenario that somehow favors the Bulldogs).
Here are MSU-as-eighth-seed scenarios:
• An MSU win and a North Dakota win over Michigan Tech will mean a trip to Grand Forks. The Sioux have the tiebreaker over the Huskies.
• An MSU tie with St. Cloud or a North Dakota loss or tie to Michigan Tech will ensure a trip back to St. Cloud next week.
Again, I'm pretty sure this is right. We'll know the answer tonight though (possibly late, late tonight after the UMD-UAA game), and won't have to wait for Sunday's Minnesota-Wisconsin result.
Five teams are locked into their spots going into tonight: 1. Denver, 2. Wisconsin, 6. Colorado College, 7. Minnesota and 10. Michigan Tech. The only first-round matchup that's set is Denver hosting Tech.
UPDATE
MSU playoff scenarios from today's WCHA press release:
Minnesota State – 19 points (at St. Cloud State):
• Seeded 8th with a win and an Alaska Anchorage loss or tie (at #3 St. Cloud State if North Dakota loses or ties).
• Seeded 8th with a win and an Alaska Anchorage loss or tie (at #3 North Dakota if North Dakota wins).
• Seeded 8th with a tie and an Alaska Anchorage loss (at #3 St. Cloud State).
• Seeded 9th with a win and an Alaska Anchorage win (at #2 Wisconsin).
• Seeded 9th with a tie and an Alaska Anchorage win or tie (at #2 Wisconsin).
• Seeded 9th with a loss (at #2 Wisconsin).
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